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The very first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 incomes went beyond expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be shown in their incomes report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring too soon, prior to the necessary economic goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which typically occur before the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.