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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues surpassed expectations: Numerous financiers were worried that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would also be shown in their revenues report. Nevertheless, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening too soon, before the essential financial goals have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place often, and this has certainly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to discuss here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages roughly 10 various ETFs, providing exposure to different sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is heavily weighted towards health care and information technology possessions. The ETF offers direct exposure to a variety of sectors, enabling you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.