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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Many financiers were stressed that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their profits report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening prematurely, before the needed economic objectives have been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually certainly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to compromise. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
The primary ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around 10 different ETFs, providing direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and information technology assets. The ETF offers direct exposure to a series of sectors, permitting you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.