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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But because the beginning of the second half of the year, the marketplace has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a little rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Many investors were worried that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their profits report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, prior to the required economic objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has actually certainly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally occur prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still may not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages approximately 10 different ETFs, supplying direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.